07-15-2004, 07:03 PM
Sri Lanka: From the battlefield to the ballot box
STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
June 21, 2000
Summary
Attempting to increase their support among Sri Lanka's Muslim population, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam have backed away from their demand for a pure Tamil state, instead arguing that it could be shared with Muslims. This marks a change in the conflict between the Tigers and the Sri Lankan government, as both sides prepare to do battle in the political arena.
Analysis
Sri Lanka's Tamil Tiger rebels have reversed their position on the island's Muslims, changing from advocates of a solely Tamil state to advocates of one shared by both Tamils and Muslims, according to Xinhua. The Tamils' shift was motivated by recent government entreaties toward the Muslim population, which makes up a small but significant group. The focus on the Muslims suggests that neither side any longer expects to settle this dispute solely on the battlefield; both sides now believe the future will be decided by political means.
The Sinhalese-dominated Sri Lankan government is doing its best to appeal to the island's 1.4 million Muslims, most of who live on the eastern coast. The government is organizing a ruling council for the war-torn northern and eastern provinces - to be made up of Muslims, ethnic Sinhalese and moderate Tamils. This will not only give the Muslims a greater share of formal political power (they only make up 7 percent of the population), it will institutionalize them as the swing vote between the Tamils and Sinhalese, granting them a great deal of informal power.
Not wishing to be outdone, the rebels are responding with their own offers. They started off slow with only a few flyers in Batticaloa and Amparai, warning Muslims to be vigilant against ''Sinhala chauvinist forces'', according to The Hindu. But, the change in doctrine - promoting a multi-religious state - is a major nod to the oft-suppressed Muslims who fear their culture's assimilation by Tamils or Sinhalese.
Why do the Muslims matter? Despite being a sliver of the overall population, they're one group that really hasn't committed to either side. They're a swing vote in the parliament, the most likely partners for either the government or the opposition party. Muslims also form a significant population bloc, up to 40 percent, in certain concentrated areas on the east coast, which is disputed territory between the government and the rebels.
The government's actions are telling, as it would likely prefer a decisive battlefield victory to political maneuvering. Likewise, the Tamils sought a decisive victory over the government. But it's not going to happen for either side. Instead, they'll turn to negotiations, which means compromise. Even as the battle continues to rage, both sides appear to be preparing for an eventual fight at the ballot box.
While the rebels have been unable to take Jaffna, their battlefield efforts appear to have succeeded in driving the idea of total victory from the government's mind. This is a victory of sorts - forcing the government to acknowledge that some compromise is going to be necessary, despite their recent gains in Jaffna.
Apparently there is enough talk in Sri Lanka and India about confederation and the ''Czech model'' of partition that the Sri Lankan government is taking pains to win the hearts and minds of the swing voters. The government has a lot to offer; increased local control and some amount of cultural autonomy are tempting inducements.
Both the government and the rebels are scrambling to take the political initiative, which is an important shift. Both sides are anticipating that the war itself will be inconclusive - and are looking for other avenues. Moving toward politics increases the possibility, however small, of a settlement in Sri Lanka.
http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/BF22Df01.html
STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
June 21, 2000
Summary
Attempting to increase their support among Sri Lanka's Muslim population, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam have backed away from their demand for a pure Tamil state, instead arguing that it could be shared with Muslims. This marks a change in the conflict between the Tigers and the Sri Lankan government, as both sides prepare to do battle in the political arena.
Analysis
Sri Lanka's Tamil Tiger rebels have reversed their position on the island's Muslims, changing from advocates of a solely Tamil state to advocates of one shared by both Tamils and Muslims, according to Xinhua. The Tamils' shift was motivated by recent government entreaties toward the Muslim population, which makes up a small but significant group. The focus on the Muslims suggests that neither side any longer expects to settle this dispute solely on the battlefield; both sides now believe the future will be decided by political means.
The Sinhalese-dominated Sri Lankan government is doing its best to appeal to the island's 1.4 million Muslims, most of who live on the eastern coast. The government is organizing a ruling council for the war-torn northern and eastern provinces - to be made up of Muslims, ethnic Sinhalese and moderate Tamils. This will not only give the Muslims a greater share of formal political power (they only make up 7 percent of the population), it will institutionalize them as the swing vote between the Tamils and Sinhalese, granting them a great deal of informal power.
Not wishing to be outdone, the rebels are responding with their own offers. They started off slow with only a few flyers in Batticaloa and Amparai, warning Muslims to be vigilant against ''Sinhala chauvinist forces'', according to The Hindu. But, the change in doctrine - promoting a multi-religious state - is a major nod to the oft-suppressed Muslims who fear their culture's assimilation by Tamils or Sinhalese.
Why do the Muslims matter? Despite being a sliver of the overall population, they're one group that really hasn't committed to either side. They're a swing vote in the parliament, the most likely partners for either the government or the opposition party. Muslims also form a significant population bloc, up to 40 percent, in certain concentrated areas on the east coast, which is disputed territory between the government and the rebels.
The government's actions are telling, as it would likely prefer a decisive battlefield victory to political maneuvering. Likewise, the Tamils sought a decisive victory over the government. But it's not going to happen for either side. Instead, they'll turn to negotiations, which means compromise. Even as the battle continues to rage, both sides appear to be preparing for an eventual fight at the ballot box.
While the rebels have been unable to take Jaffna, their battlefield efforts appear to have succeeded in driving the idea of total victory from the government's mind. This is a victory of sorts - forcing the government to acknowledge that some compromise is going to be necessary, despite their recent gains in Jaffna.
Apparently there is enough talk in Sri Lanka and India about confederation and the ''Czech model'' of partition that the Sri Lankan government is taking pains to win the hearts and minds of the swing voters. The government has a lot to offer; increased local control and some amount of cultural autonomy are tempting inducements.
Both the government and the rebels are scrambling to take the political initiative, which is an important shift. Both sides are anticipating that the war itself will be inconclusive - and are looking for other avenues. Moving toward politics increases the possibility, however small, of a settlement in Sri Lanka.
http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/BF22Df01.html