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<span style='color:red'><b>The Renegade Leader and the failed Media predictions</b>

[size=9]Apr 16, 2004, 09:27 [TNS]</span>

The split is the biggest blow to the rebel group since it began its insurrection in 1983.- AP, March 4th

The LTTE has suffered a severe blow with the breaking away of its military leader from the East, Karuna from the organization. Daily News, March 4th

The request [for a separate ceasefire agreement] underscored the problems with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) despite the Tiger leadership in the north of country saying they were only facing a temporary crisis that would be resolved soon- Sify News, March 5th

that raises the possibility of the de-merger of the north and east something the Tigers have traditionally opposed- BBC, March 5th

The Tigers downplayed what is considered the biggest challenge to its leadership after an internal rift was made public by Mr. Muralitharan three days ago.It is a problem concerning a single individual, the LTTE's political wing leader, S.P. Tamilchelvan, said after reading out the decision of the central committee. - The Hindu, March 6th

The number of fighters under `Col.' Karuna's command is not known, but estimates place them between 6,000 and 8,000 well-trained troops, including the most-feared `Jayanthan Brigade,' which overran the Elephant Pass. - The Hindu, March 6th

But the biggest gun battle the battle for the East is yet to unfold after LTTE's Eastern Military Wing Leader V. Muralitheran alias Col. Karuna broke ranks with the northern leadership this week. - Daily Mirror, March 6th

The two sides are bracing for a bout if internecine war as Prabhakaran's elite troops are moving to the east to strike Karuna. - Daily Mirror, March 6th

Karuna also controls between 6,000 to 8,000 troops and is certainly a force to reckon with in his own terrain that however has been infiltrated by the northern leadership.- Daily Mirror, March 6th

The Karuna revolt could lead to some kind of breakaway warlordism, `reformed' or otherwise, in a region where he has wielded overwhelming military power. - The Hindu, March 8th

Tamilchelvam, the leader of the LTTE's political wing, dismissed the split as a problem concerning a single leader. But it is much more.- Asia Times, March 9th

Rifts within the LTTE have never resulted in a chunk of the organization breaking away. That has become a real possibility today.- Asia Times, March 9th

Some analysts believe that the current crisis is likely to split the LTTE along regional lines, with the eastern wing rallying behind Karuna.- Asia Times, March 9th

He [Karuna] is said to have considerable support in the east and is seen as someone who has raised issues of concern to eastern Tamils.- Asia Times, March 9th

The likely fratricidal fighting could draw the Lankan armed forces into the conflict and that in turn could result in the ceasefire agreement unravelling.- Asia Times, March 9th

As a man who has had many bitter experiences while commanding major battles against the Sri Lankan army, he says he is not afraid of death. And he is not alone.- BBC, March 11th

There will certainly be an impact. They cannot function without me. Even if they do, they cannot be strong, Karuna said in an interview to The Hindu, March 13th

It's official now! The monolithic Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has cracked.- Sunday Leader, March 14th

Ramesh, the man who is nominally replacing Karuna says that the people and movement are behind the national leader and that this poor bloke Karuna is all alone. Funny, then why is he sitting in Kilinochchi instead of being in Mattakkalappu driving the lone rebel out.- Sunday Leader, March 14th

Given Karuna's strength and courage it could be a long drawn out protracted struggle without any decisive victory.- Sunday Leader, March 14th

Though some senior Eastern tiger leaders such as Karikalan, Ramesh, Kausalyan, and Ram have deserted Karuna and fled to the North, the rank and file remains loyal. He has around 7,500 fighters in the East and by all accounts is ready to battle his erstwhile comrades if necessary. - The Hindu, March 15th

Karuna will not be forgiven nor will he go down without a fight. Given the LTTE's track record the commencement of a protracted Eastern bloodbath seems inevitable at some point of time. Whatever the outcome there is no doubt that the LTTE will be considerably weakened as a result. - The Hindu, March 15th

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam today continued to downplay its severest crisis, maintaining that the split engineered by its regional military commander, V. Muralitharan (also known as `Col.' Karuna), was "an individual's problem." This would not affect the organisation and would be "brought under control very quickly." - The Hindu, March 21st

Karuna has a large number of cadres with him. He controls territory. He enjoys the sympathetic support of significant sections of eastern society- Sunday Leader March 21st

Whatever the outcome of this confrontation, the LTTE will be weakened. Even if killed Karuna will be a martyr to the east.- Sunday Leader March 21st

The LTTE could never again be the fighting machine that it was in the east in particular and Sri Lanka in general.- Sunday Leader, March 21st

If they attack us, we are ready and they will regret their action, he said. We have enough weapons and cadres to beat back the other side. Muralitharan's brother tells the AP, March 24th

The schism threatens to scuttle delicate peace negotiations between the Tigers and the government, and the risk looms of an internecine Tamil war, correspondents warn.- BBC, March 26th

He has shaken the LTTE to its very foundations and has caused the Tigers irredeemable harm.- Sunday Leader March 28th

Instead of making eastern Tigers abandon or turn against Vinayagamoorthy Muralitharan alias Karuna as expected the ultimatum has only helped to strengthen his position among his loyal cadre it is reported.,- Sunday Leader, April 4th

Hundreds of cadres who opted to be neutral initially have now revised their stance and are rejoining Karuna.- Sunday Leader, April 4th

The situation however is taking a turn for the worse and there is every possibility that a fratricidal bloodbath could occur.- Sunday Leader, April 4th

Nevertheless around 500 to 600 cadres will continuously remain loyal to Karuna through thick and thin it is presumed.- Sunday Leader, April 4th

The LTTE used only to resolving issues on a military level had misjudged the eastern mood completely.- Sunday Leader, April 4th

Karuna is a survivior with staying power with thousands of battle-hardened fighters under his command who have largely remained loyal in his eastern redoubt.- Toronto Star, April 4th

Yes, if the division continues, it has weakened them, there is no doubt about it. If Karuna continues to oppose Prabhakaran, it will certainly be a problem for them. They will certainly be a weakened force. -Lionel Balagalle in an interview to Rediff, April 5th

Karuna's attitude is different. He doesn't take taxes, he doesn't want to abduct people, he doesn't want to kill people. He has stopped all that. - Lionel Balagalle in an interview to Rediff, April 5th

However, with a major battle not ruled out, the possibility of the toll rising towards the end of the present phase of the LTTE's first and most serious internal battle is not ruled out.- The Hindu, April 12th

Karuna's defence against allegations of personal and financial misconduct is that if it were so, he would have fled and not stayed on to assert his position.- Frontline, V21.7

I want to spend my final days here, said the 37-year-old, who joined the LTTE 20 years ago, in the aftermath of the 1983 anti-Tamil pogrom.- Frontline, V21.7

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