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Sri Lanka election may not produce clear winner

By Scott McDonald

COLOMBO (Reuters) - Sri Lanka votes this week for the third time in four years but a majority for either side is unlikely and a messy political feud that has stalled efforts to end war with Tamil rebels is set to continue.

The April 2 snap election was triggered by a dispute between President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe over how to talk peace with the rebels.

So far neither of their parties appears set to win a majority and claim a mandate to deal with the rebels to permanently end the separatist war that has killed at least 64,000 people.

"Right now, it does not look like either party will win a majority," said Rohan Edrisinha, a political analyst at the University of Colombo.

"That raises a lot of worries about how to proceed with the peace process," he said.

Kumaratunga, who is elected separately, has accused Wickremesinghe of endangering Sri Lanka's security by giving away too much to win peace with the rebels, which he denies.

Wickremesinghe, who signed a ceasefire with the Tamil Tiger rebels more than two years ago, has been campaigning almost exclusively on his peace bid, saying he needs a new mandate to complete the process.

"We need Ranil to continue. Only he can deliver the future," reads his United National Party (UNP) campaign advertisement.

Kumaratunga's United Peoples' Freedom Alliance says Wickremesinghe's peace process is dangerous, and also accuses his government of corruption.

"Your corruption swallows what our peace saves," said the alliance's latest advertisement.

The UNP managed a slim majority of 114 seats in the 225-seat parliament in the last election, but only after an alliance with a small Muslim party.

LTTE A KINGMAKER?

This time, number crunchers will have to include the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) for the first time.

The LTTE, fighting for a separate state for the Tamil minority, is fielding proxy candidates, and analysts expect the Tamil National Alliance to win up to 20 seats, giving it and the Tigers a possible kingmaker role.

The Tigers say they are ready to resume peace talks that stalled last April with anyone who has a mandate and the power.

Predictions of a minority government may make that difficult.

Although the UNP won in 2001, there was an awkward cohabitation between Kumaratunga, who has vast constitutional powers, and Wickremesinghe, who controlled parliament.

Both have pledged to reopen talks as soon as possible, but differ sharply in their approach to that.

A record 6,024 candidates also includes a party of Buddhist monks for the first time. They are expected to win three or four seats, but that could also make the difference in a tight race.

Another wildcard is the inclusion of the People's Liberation Front (JVP), a hardline nationalist party with Marxist economic policies, in the Freedom Alliance.

That has lead the UNP to call Kumaratunga "Madame Comrade", and question the Freedom Alliance's economic policies, which include references to a "mixed economy".

The markets generally see Wickremesinghe's party, which has pursued privatisation and courted foreign investment, as more business-friendly, while the Freedom Alliance's cost of living accusations have struck a cord with the public.

Worries the campaign may turn more violent increased on Saturday after two people, including a former cabinet minister, were shot in separate incidents.

More than 70 people were murdered in the 2001 campaign.

Thanx: Reuters