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Karuna bombshell: The fall-out

By Keith Noyahr
The unprecedented action by LTTE’s Colonel Karuna last week would have shell-shocked the hitherto undisputed Tiger leader Velupillai Prabhakaran who has turned his organization, over a quarter century into a monolithic unit where he enjoyed the status of a god.


In fact Karuna still reveres Prabha as a god, as he made out in a subsequent letter to him, but has possibly lost the fear he had for his ruthless leader.


<span style='color:#da0000'>What could be the reason for this change of attitude?

Could it be a rush of blood? Unlikely, for several reasons, including his dispatching his family to Malaysia two months back.

[b]Intense planning seems to have taken place before the drastic decision was made.

As Karuna continues to stick to his guns, we could not simply dismiss his actions and statements against the "Wanni leadership."


After a week he did not retract his story but has simply said he was not averse to a settlement with the Wanni administration. He continues to take a guard of honour to send a powerful message to the leadership there, address his troops and flex his muscles.


A week has gone by and the northern leadership was unable to silence him.


[b]Where does he draw his strength from? Has he been given an assurance of support from either the Super Power or the Regional Power?The Wanni leadership, which has at least twice last year blasted the international community including the super power and the regional power for interfering and trying to dictates terms to its organisation, has begun a probe ina bid to find a hidden hand behind the whole issue.


Stung by the bug of terrorism and obsessed with democracy, the United States has time and again condemned the LTTE for failing to give an assurance that it was giving up terrorism. The US also castigated the Tigers for a number of politically motivated killings during the ceasefire and more recently the slaying of a candidate, undermining democracy.


India's hatred towards the LTTE is deep-seated and the country certainly made known its opposition to the LTTE's Interim Self Governing Authority demand while entertaining doubts about its intentions to settle for federalism within a united Sri Lanka as pledged.


In his grievances, Karuna had expressed doubts about obtaining justice for his people under the ISGA the LTTE was planning to set up in the North and East. Karuna also castigated the northern leadership for preparing for another bout of war.

If Karuna's revolt continues up to elections, the chances of the TNA bettering its previous performance is bleak while its aim at 22 seats was out of the question. It would end up with 15-17 seats. India was averse to the TNA increasing its clout in the legislature and was even against elections for this reason.

Alternatively, is Karuna taken over by a fresh surge of regionalism, acting on his own steam? He could possibly be, given his military strength, confidence in his command, indispensable military prowess and insulation in his own terrain.

[b]When the news first broke out, most Sri Lankans were so shocked that it took them time to digest, absorb and eventually react.


Knowing how monolithic the LTTE is and given the organization's ability to spring surprises, some even thought the whole story that broke on Wednesday night was a smokescreen or a red herring as another of Prabhakaran's plans was yet to unfold.

This column last Saturday said, "it will be interesting to see whether he (S.P. Thamilselvan who was due to hold a press conference that same day) will try to cover up things or expose Karuna as a traitor to the cause and even sack him. The chances are that (the LTTE) will try to mend fences…"


Thamilselvan, at the behest of Prabhakaran, did everything that Saturday- he described Karuna as a traitor, sacked him, covered up the seriousness of the affair and offered to mend fences by expressing willingness to accept an apology from him.


The Wanni leadership and a section of Tamils have branded Karuna a traitor. But we may ask the pertinent question whether he is a traitor or a freedom fighter to the Tamils of the East who, he believes strongly, have been discriminated by the North. He has modified the Tamil cause calling for a "Southern Tamil Eelam."


Those who consider him a traitor argue that he has damaged the LTTE irreversibly.


To an extent he has, for Karuna's announcement has a tremendous fall-out on the bargaining power of the LTTE at future negotiations, given the dent it has created in the organization's military machine and the political demand for a merged North and East.


The LTTE would no longer be able to go to war as a unified or cohesive force.


But for those nationalists who oppose a political solution to the ethnic conflict let them be reminded that the LTTE could cause havoc using guerilla warfare and terror all over the country.

Recruitment mainly in the East and to an extent in the North would be hampered. Mothers and fathers would think twice whether they have to accept child conscription lying low.

The division between northern and eastern Tamils has once again come to the fore and the work of 20 years of subduing these differences to enable Tamils from the North and East to talk and act with one voice was likely to go down the drain. The worst fall-out being the undermining of the LTTE as the sole representatives of the Tamils after the organization was able to even bring the traditional Tamil political leadership under the aegis of the Tamil National Alliance under its charge.

But, Karuna, who appears to be a true son of the eastern soil would brook no nonsense. He has watched how his people were used as cannon fodder while the northerners were enjoying all the perks and positions in the organisation.


This column last week carried all the grievances expressed by Karuna and hence they need not be repeated for want of space.


What needs repetition however is my call to address the grievances spelled out by Karuna as any lasting peace will require a solution to the issues raised by all communities particularly in the East. We have the grievances of the Muslims and Sinhalese who account for a third each of the population in the region. Now, we have the eastern Tamils through Karuna demanding justice and not wanting the north to lord it over them.


After all if it is a question of a person's individual rights being violated the present Constitution has provision for redressing these grievances as the chapter on Fundamental Rights is now justiciable. And in practice the Supreme Court has given many a landmark judgment in this area. However, if a community, here the eastern Tamils, feel they are discriminated as a whole we need structures in a new Constitution to address the issues of this and other communities.


The other pertinent question is about the timing.


[b]As the differences of opinion between the northern and eastern faction led by Karuna was there for a while (at least two years) why was the breakaway announced barely three weeks before the April 2 general elections?


Is it that the best time to draw the attention of the people and the organisation was in the run- up to polls? Or as I surmised last week did Karuna get wind of a move to sideline him further forcing him to pre-empt the action? The latest UTHR report too talks on the same lines.


Another theory has it that the LTTE was after Karuna for alleged embezzling of funds forcing him to act swiftly to counter a possible move.


Theories apart, Karuna might have military prowess and the sworn support of his men, but he needs money to carry on and funds are tightly controlled by the Wanni leadership, as I said last week.


Some one or some group will have to pump money for the group's survival lest it end up like any other former Tamil militant group.</span>

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