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Analysis: Divided Tigers

<b>By Frances Harrison
BBC correspondent in Colombo</b>

<b>The Tamil Tiger rebel movement has been plunged into the biggest internal revolt in its two-decade history - throwing Sri Lanka's already ailing peace process into even more jeopardy.</b>

A senior military commander from the east, Colonel Karuna, has told the Associated Press news agency he will no longer take orders from rebel leader Velupillai Prabhakaran and wants to negotiate a defence pact independently with the Sri Lankan army.

At the same time, a local rebel newspaper under Colonel Karuna's control has printed a letter purportedly sent by him to Mr Prabhakaran.

The paper, Thamil Alai, says Colonel Karuna asked to act independently in the east but under the direct command of Mr Prabhakaran, whom he said he worshipped like a god.

It is likely Colonel Karuna is saying one thing to his cadres in the east and another to Colombo journalists.

If he is to have a future he needs to maintain the loyalty of his own fighters and one way to do that is to say he is still with Mr Prabhakaran but at the same time sticking up for the rights of the east against the domination of northern Tamils.

Also, if Colonel Karuna is to break away with any of the thousands of men and women he commands then he needs to avoid links with the Sri Lankan army.

If he were seen as a defector he would have little hope of taking people with him.

But the question is how he hopes to survive alone outside the mainstream rebel movement without the army's backing.

<b>Test of strength</b>

<img src='http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/39921000/jpg/_39921957_tamsy203.jpg' border='0' alt='user posted image'>
Colonel Karuna in Batticaloa with Tigers from the east

Those who have challenged Mr Prabhakaran in the past have not lived to tell the tale.

At the very least, the leadership of the Tigers will move swiftly to isolate Colonel Karuna from his fighters - assuming few will want to become dissidents.


The worry for the rebels is that if Colonel Karuna is not isolated quickly there may be internecine fighting between the eastern and the northern forces of the Tamil Tigers.

Then the temptation for the government forces to assist one side or the other would be huge.

There is also the possibility the Sri Lankan military may get drawn into a conflict inadvertently.

Most people assume, however, that both factions will first allow the general elections to take place in early April.

These will now be a test of strength.

It is not yet clear what impact this rift will have on the Tamil National Alliance candidates - who are essentially the political proxies of the rebel movement contesting the polls in the north-east.


<b>De-merger </b>

The situation also poses a major problem for the Norwegian mediators and ceasefire monitors as well as for the Sri Lankan government which is itself divided at the moment.


The nation's president and prime minister are also divided

If they deal independently with Colonel Karuna they may give him legitimacy and incur the wrath of the mainstream Tiger leadership in the north. Then there are the wider implications of a possible separation of the east.

Colonel Karuna has spoken to Associated Press of "full self-administration" in the east in the future.

That raises the possibility of the de-merger of the north and east - something the Tigers have traditionally opposed but Sinhalese and Muslims who live in the more mixed eastern area would support as it would make them less of a minority.

The outlook cannot be good for a quick resumption of peace talks - delayed for almost a year now.

Even supporters of Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe in his feud with President Chandrika Kumaratunga say this latest split in the rebel ranks is a far more serious challenge to the peace process than the president's decision last November to take over the defence ministry.

That action prompted the Norwegian mediators, who were in town to organise the next round of talks, to go home - saying there was nothing more they could do until it was clear which leader was in charge of the government.

Now there's division in both the government and rebel ranks.