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India pulls Sri Lankan strings - Mathivathanan - 11-11-2003
<span style='font-size:25pt;line-height:100%'>India pulls Sri Lankan strings </span>
By Ramtanu Maitra
A two-pronged intervention by India and the United States over the past several days has helped avert a full-blown crisis in Sri Lanka, following President Chandrika Kumaratunga's peremptory sacking of three cabinet ministers - including the powerful Defense Minister Tilak Marapana - as well as the dismissal of parliament and a day later the imposition of a nationwide emergency.
Kumaratunga's actions, which have all the earmarks of a coup attempt, coincided with Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's meeting with US President George W Bush in Washington. The crucial White House meeting was to secure formal US support for the peace-process to end the two-decade-old ethnic war between the Tamils and Sinhalas of Sri Lanka, and to enhance trade and economic ties with the US. The meeting took on added significance as it followed similar meetings Wickremesinghe has recently held with the heads of state of Japan, India and the European Union.
By November 5, in response to growing international concern over the future of the peace process, Kumaratunga pledged her commitment to the ceasefire between the government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), and declared that she had no intention of "resuming or provoking" hostilities with the rebels. But it is no secret that her actions are a deliberate strike at the Norwegian-brokered peace efforts and the ceasefire that has been in force for some time.
Two days later, on November 7, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee told Kumaratunga that India was "anxious" about the recent political developments on the island, and that a constitutional crisis must be avoided. The peace process needs to continue, he told her, and a solution to current problems found through "internal political dialogue". That same day, Kumaratunga called for a "grand alliance" of all "national and patriotic forces", and backed down on the declaration of a state of emergency.
India's advice had also been delivered by the US, which in addition withheld the signing of the free trade agreement that had been slated for the Washington visit. Later, to underscore that instability would not be tolerated, the US announced that joint US-Sri Lankan military exercises were to continue as scheduled.
The upheaval in Colombo may eventually lead to an attempt to form a new government under the People's Alliance, backed by Kumaratunga. In the meantime, however, the danger is that with the prime minister ostensibly weakened and Kumaratunga's credibility already low, the most aggressive factions within both the Tamil and the Sinhala communities will find in the president's moves an open invitation to provoke a violent showdown. India's ability to weigh in critically and constructively in the current turmoil is testimony to the progress New Delhi has made in reshaping and deepening ties with Sri Lanka.
Behind New Delhi's constructive role
Over the past few years, the relationship between New Delhi and Colombo has improved dramatically. Today, the Delhi-Colombo tie is a privileged one, based on total trust and willingness to cooperate on each side. Moreover, India's present-day policies toward Sri Lanka have Washington's open endorsement.
Speaking to rediff.com on November 3, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said it is up to India whether to play a "catalytic role" in the Sri Lankan peace process. Expressing concern over the on-going violence in Sri Lanka, Armitage said: "The overwhelming interest we have is one of humanity. And that is the development of Sri Lanka. We want this island - this nation of over 20 million - to be a full, complete partner in the economic life not only of South Asia, but of the globe. We see no reason why Sri Lanka can't be an engine of growth in South Asia and I look forward to the day when it will be."
US support to bringing Sri Lankan security under the Indian umbrella was evident when the USS Sides (FFG 14) completed port visits to Cochin, India and Colombo in May. At the time, USS Sides commander Octavio Manduley issued a statement saying, "The United States shares many common interests with India and Sri Lanka as well as the other countries of the Indian Ocean region, including mutual security and the prosperity of our people. Port visits like these two help contribute to those goals."
Along with security concerns that India and Sri Lanka share, Armitage was referring to the recent strengthening of the Indo-Sri Lanka relationship with a qualitative boost in economic ties - a development identified with Wickremesinghe.
In 1998, India and Sri Lanka signed a free trade agreement (FTA). Despite India's reluctance to sign it at the time, the accord was inked because of the Sri Lankan initiative. Under the agreement, India vowed to eliminate tariffs on 1,000 Sri Lankan products over a period of three years, and Sri Lanka promised to do away with tariffs on 900 Indian products within eight years. The development was hailed by a section within Sri Lanka as a "landmark agreement" because it provided Sri Lankan manufacturers with access to the vast Indian market.
But others in Sri Lanka criticized it, fearing a danger of downsizing and closures with resultant mass unemployment and a setback to indigenous technologies. However, the success of the FTA became visible within a short period of time. According to recent statements by Central Bank of Sri Lanka Governor A S Jayawardena, there has been a huge improvement in two-way trade between India and Sri Lanka since the FTA was signed. He views it as a prospective model for similar agreements, not only with countries in the South Asia region, but elsewhere. For instance, Sri Lanka has signed a preliminary agreement with the US, and a final agreement is expected in the near future.
"Even a small country can have an advantage over a large country because of specialization," Jayawardena points out, discussing the accomplishments of the FTA. Likewise, Indian industry was worried about products from Sri Lanka flooding the market. That also did not happen. The genius of Wickremesinghe was in realizing the essence that economic relations could be increased multifold, and made a precursor to the much broader regional economic cooperation which has so far eluded the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in its two decades of existence. The Sri Lankan prime minister's vision is for regional economic integration through free trade, shared infrastructure and expanded physical connectivity across borders. On paper, all seven of SAARC's member nations - Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka - are committed to such an agenda.
Economic partnership
The fast growing economic and trade ties between Sri Lanka and India were given a boost when the prime ministers of the two countries formally received the first two copies of the reports of the Indo-Lanka Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) in New Delhi last month. A decision had been taken in June 2002 to expand economic ties from the current trade in goods to cover new areas of economic cooperation. The two prime ministers appointed an India-Sri Lanka joint study group in April to make recommendations for the establishment of a partnership. Its report subsequently pointed out that entering into a comprehensive partnership agreement would take the two countries to a qualitatively new level of engagement.
The CEPA replaces the existing trade agreement, which was restricted to a list of goods for trade between the two countries and covers a very wide spectrum of trade and economic areas such as service, aviation, transport, tourism and investment. In fact, the agreement in general allows the two countries to enter into broad negotiations covering all service sectors and modes of supply within the GATT framework. Besides, it facilitates greater investment flows by addressing identified regulatory and operational constraints, helps implement measures to enhance economic cooperation, and paves the way for trade and investment liberalization.
In addition to the economic ties now enhanced, Sri Lanka has indicated that it is most likely to award oil and gas exploration rights off the island's northwest coast to India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp.
"We feel that Indian companies will be at an advantage, especially in the Cauvery Basin, because they are familiar with the region," Daham Wimalasena, chairman of Ceylon Petroleum Corp, said recently. Records indicate that Sri Lanka had carried out a drilling exploration program more than 20 years ago, but did not find any oil. Now, Wimalasena concludes, the government cannot afford further drilling.
The peace process
The moves to enhance bilateral economic relations between India and Sri Lanka were not being carried out in a vacuum. They were triggered at a time when international efforts were afoot to bring about a political solution to the two-decade-old ethnic hostilities in Sri Lanka. They took place also at a time when New Delhi was pushing hard to develop concrete economic and investment ties with Southeast Asia, East Asia, China and the SAARC nations. In addition, India, too, has endorsed the peace moves.
It is no secret that Wickremesinghe's three official working visits to India since his government came to power in December, 2001 have brought about a sea of change in Indo-Sri Lankan relations. It is widely acknowledged both in Colombo and in New Delhi that the Sri Lankan prime minister considers relations with India one of the cornerstones of his foreign, economic and national security policies. In fact, whether it is publicly admitted by Colombo or not, the Sri Lankan government has long realized that the peace process between the Tigers and Colombo is a non-starter without acknowledging the fact that India is a vital component of the process. In recent months, the Europeans and Americans have also made clear India's importance in working out a solution of the Sri Lankan imbroglio.
It is widely known by now that in the 1980s, particularly during Indira Gandhi's regime, India harbored and trained Tamil Tigers, and provided operational intelligence to the LTTE. There was a time when the Tigers used Tamil Nadu, the southernmost Indian state of some 55 million Indian Tamils, as a sanctuary for Tamil opposition groups, including the LTTE. It was pointed out by Sri Lankan analyst Gaston de Rosayro that as late as 1996, New Delhi had warned Colombo that a former south Indian-based militant group had been attempting to mobilize political support among radical groups for the Tigers. But it became evident later that the overtures by the Tamil Nadu-based Eelam National Democratic Left Front to garner support for the Sri Lankan guerillas had had little impact on the Indian Tamils. The goodwill that the Sri Lankan Tamil extremists once enjoyed among Indian Tamils had evaporated like a bottle of camphor during the 1990s. This development provided New Delhi with a mandate to act tough against the Tigers, but without taking recourse to vengeance.
Sri Lanka recognizes that India has been circumspect throughout the last 20 months of peace talks between Colombo and the Tigers. By not demanding extradition of Tiger supreme Velupillai Prabhakaran, who has been tried in absentia in India and found guilty of the murder of former Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi, at an early stage of talks, New Delhi paid heed to Colombo's concerns on the sensitive extradition issue. Colombo feared that a demand for extradition of Prabhakaran by New Delhi would preemptively collapse the peace talks.
Security concerns
New Delhi appears to be aware at this point that it cannot afford to perpetuate yet another serious security problem in the neighborhood. According to analysts in Colombo, Wickremesinghe's official visit to Delhi last month was not only to strengthen economic ties, but also to establish formal military ties constituting a defense pact.
As the joint statement issued subsequently said: "The two prime ministers discussed the ongoing cooperation in training and supply of equipment to the Sri Lankan defense forces, and agreed that the two sides will commence discussions with a view to conclude a defense cooperation agreement at the earliest."
Wickremesinghe reportedly pressed for the signing of a Defense Cooperation Agreement. India is understood to have kept the door open for discussions on the matter at an appropriate time, as reported by the Delhi-based news daily, The Hindustan Times. It is a moot question whether Kumaratunga's sudden act was to bring about an end to that process.
On the other hand, it should be noted that although there had been no formal agreement between New Delhi and Colombo on joint naval surveillance, the two countries joined hands during these 20 months to put up a joint naval blockade across the Palk Strait, which separates Sri Lanka's northernmost tip from the Indian state of Tamil Nadu. This blockade was aimed at preventing the Tiger cadres from running guns and drugs, ferrying the Tiger cadres and smuggling in fuel from the Indian coastal areas.
It is evident that no matter what New Delhi and Colombo work out as a security arrangement, the vital Tamil issue will be subsumed within it. Those in Colombo who find it difficult to accept the growing power of India in the region will eventually come to recognize that the huge Indian republic cannot allow the festering of an on-going security problem on its threshold.
India's priority on resolving the Tamil-Sinhala conflict reflects the international convergence on security issues. Recent reports from the US embassy in Colombo indicate that about 30 US Air Force experts have begun a joint survey of Sri Lanka's airfields to assist their local counterparts with their security, medical and engineering needs. For the past eight years or so, the Tigers have claimed that Sri Lankan troops were being afforded extensive combat-training in the southern Wirawila district, where US Special Forces have set up a sophisticated military training camp. The Colombo government, while maintaining a diplomatic silence on the issue of foreign intervention, had not denied any of the rebel allegations.
In reality, the US is not only involved in training the Sri Lankan military, but is also selling military hardware to Colombo. Despite the measures undertaken by Colombo, India is aware that the Tamil Tigers remain a potent force. In mid-October, Defense Minister Tilak Marapana admitted that the Tigers "have gradually crept in and established a stronger foothold". As a result of this aggressive posture by the Tigers during the period of ceasefire, Colombo has increased defense outlays in its budget and made some procurements from Russia, China and Israel to update equipment for the military.
The threat posed by the LTTE was also addressed recently in the United Kingdom, which had long been the international headquarters of the Tamil Tigers. Recent reports indicate that the Tigers are in the process of winding down operations in London in the wake of tough UK anti-terrorism laws. Sri Lanka has conveyed its "serious concerns" to South Africa that the violent separatist group may shift its headquarters there. "The South African government has been forewarned about this possibility and they have taken this question on board," said foreign ministry spokesman Ravinatha Aryasinha.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/EK11Df06.html